Studying Computer Science in Canada? Fresh Grad Tech Jobs Are Getting Harder to Land, Research Found.

New evidence from Statistics Canada, in the January 28, 2026 study Canadian employment trends in the era of generative artificial intelligence by Tahsin Mehdi and Marc Frenette, tracks labour market outcomes from November 2022 to December 2025. It finds employment generally grew across occupations regardless of potential exposure to AI, but growth was weaker for younger and less educated workers, and the tightest pressure appears in entry level pathways. Coding intensive professions grew overall, yet gains were concentrated among workers aged 30 to 49 while coding professionals younger than 30 stagnated. For immigrants planning to study and then work, especially study permit applicants aiming for post graduation employment, the findings point to a more competitive junior hiring environment shaped by both generative AI adoption and other overlapping economic forces.

What AI era job trends mean for international students and newcomers

The research separates occupations using a complementarity adjusted AI exposure index, grouping jobs into:

• High exposure and low complementarity (HELC), where tasks may be easier to substitute with AI
• High exposure and high complementarity (HEHC), where AI is more likely to assist rather than replace workers
• Low exposure (LE), where tasks are less exposed to AI but may still face automation pressures

From November 2022 to December 2025, employment rose across all three groups. In HELC jobs, employment for men was about 10% higher by December 2025 than in November 2022, and for women about 5% higher. Importantly, growth differences across groups were not statistically significant, suggesting no broad collapse in AI exposed work yet.

However, age patterns matter for immigrants because international students and new permanent residents are overrepresented in younger cohorts. Employees aged 15 to 29 had employment in December 2025 about 5% above November 2022, while employees aged 30 to 49 were about 10% above. Population growth from 2022 to 2025 was similar for these groups at 9% for ages 15 to 29 and 11% for ages 30 to 49, so weaker youth outcomes are not simply because there are more young people.

Education splits are also relevant for study permit planning. Workers with a bachelor’s degree or above saw job gains of 10% to 20% from November 2022 to December 2025 across groups. In contrast, there was little to no growth for workers with high school or below, or with postsecondary credentials below a bachelor’s degree or incomplete postsecondary education. For many study permit applicants, this supports a strategy that leads to stronger credential outcomes and clearer labour market alignment, rather than short credentials that may not compete well in a tight entry level market.

Employer size is another signal. From November 2022 to December 2025, employment in larger establishments with more than 500 workers grew by roughly 30%, while smaller establishments showed little to no growth. This matters because international graduates often rely on small and mid sized employers for first Canadian experience, especially outside major hubs. When small employer hiring is flat, competition rises and job searches take longer.

Coding jobs still grew, but the under 30 pipeline is the pressure point

Coding intensive professions grew by roughly 15% from November 2022 to December 2025, compared with about 5% for other jobs, though the difference was not statistically significant. The more important detail is who benefited.

By December 2025, employment among workers aged 15 to 29 in coding intensive jobs was about the same as in November 2022, while employment among workers aged 30 to 49 in coding intensive jobs was almost 30% higher. In absolute terms, there were about 2 times as many coding intensive employees aged 30 to 49 as those aged 15 to 29 in November 2022, rising to about 3 times by December 2025. This divergence became statistically significant in late 2024.

Vacancy data supports the same story. Job vacancies peaked at nearly 1,000,000 in the second quarter of 2022, then declined as the post pandemic surge cooled. From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2025, job vacancies in HELC and LE occupations fell by almost 50%, while HEHC vacancies fell by about 30%.

For coding intensive jobs, the junior segment dropped the most. By the third quarter of 2025:

o Coding intensive vacancies requiring 3 years of experience or less fell about 60%
o Coding intensive vacancies requiring more experience fell about 30%
o In other occupations, vacancies fell about 45% for 3 years or less and about 20% for more experience

This pattern does not prove AI is the single cause. The research notes multiple overlapping forces, including post pandemic adjustment and broader economic shifts. Still, from an immigration planning perspective, the impact is practical and immediate: fewer junior postings can mean longer job searches after graduation, which increases risk for those trying to meet work experience targets for permanent residence pathways.

Study permit planning in a tighter entry level market

Study permit applications are assessed on genuine temporary resident intent and a credible education plan. In a market where junior hiring is tighter, credibility increasingly comes from showing realistic employability steps, not only tuition payment ability.

Core study permit elements often expected in a well prepared application include:

• Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) or Territorial Attestation Letter (TAL) for certain study levels
• Proof of acceptance from a designated learning institution
• Proof of financial support for tuition and living expenses
• A study plan that connects prior background, the chosen program, and career outcomes
• Evidence of ties and a reasonable pathway after studies
• Supporting documents such as identity, travel history, and where required, medical exams and biometrics

Applicants should also design the education path to reduce entry level friction. Practical steps include prioritizing programs with structured work integrated learning, building a portfolio early, and selecting specializations that signal complementarity with AI rather than easily automated junior tasks.

Job quality data also matters for long term expectations. In 2025, average hourly wages were $48.50 for HEHC jobs, $35.40 for HELC jobs, and $28.50 for LE jobs. Coding intensive jobs averaged $54.40 per hour versus $35.70 for other jobs. Real hourly wages grew by about 5% from November 2022 to December 2025 across groups. Coding roles also showed high stability, with 97.9% full time, 94.6% permanent, and 60.3% associated with workplace pension plans. These are strong outcomes, but they also attract more candidates, including experienced workers, which raises the bar for new graduates.

Current difficulties include higher competition for junior tech roles, fewer postings requiring low experience, tighter approval rates and caps on admissions, and immigration timelines that leave little margin for job search delays, which is why many study permit and post graduation strategies now require tighter program selection, stronger documentation, and earlier career preparation, with better planning and visa success often supported by advising, application preparation, and professional representation from an immigration consultant.